"You do realise that if everyone who thought "my vote would be wasted" voted anyway, they would stand a not insignificant chance of kicking out the incumbent?"
I doubt it -- there is no evidence which way they would vote (they could easily have the same proportions as those who do vote). As I said after the last election, IF everyone who didn't vote turned up and IF they almost all voted the same way (not Tory and not split) then there would be a good chance of changing it. If that 37.6% were equally split between LD and Labour (and none of them voted Tory) then the LibDems would just get in. In practice, however, I would be pretty certain that a reasonable proportion of those who didn't vote would vote Tory (and don't bother because he's going to get in anyway), making it hard for anyone else to get in.
(The only thing which can actually be said with any authority about those who didn't vote is that they didn't vote. How they might have voted is completely unknown. The most likely thing, statistically, is that the proportions would be the same as in the rest of the population under consideration, but that too is an assumption.)
Actually, if I vote for the person who I think would do best for the area then I would vote for the incumbent[1]. I'm pretty sure that's why he gets in, because he's seen as a "good bloke" who does work for the local area and things of concern to the locals.
[1] I rule out the Labour one as no way do I want Labour to get in, no matter how much I might like the person standing.
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Date: 2010-05-06 11:21 am (UTC)I doubt it -- there is no evidence which way they would vote (they could easily have the same proportions as those who do vote). As I said after the last election, IF everyone who didn't vote turned up and IF they almost all voted the same way (not Tory and not split) then there would be a good chance of changing it. If that 37.6% were equally split between LD and Labour (and none of them voted Tory) then the LibDems would just get in. In practice, however, I would be pretty certain that a reasonable proportion of those who didn't vote would vote Tory (and don't bother because he's going to get in anyway), making it hard for anyone else to get in.
(The only thing which can actually be said with any authority about those who didn't vote is that they didn't vote. How they might have voted is completely unknown. The most likely thing, statistically, is that the proportions would be the same as in the rest of the population under consideration, but that too is an assumption.)
Actually, if I vote for the person who I think would do best for the area then I would vote for the incumbent[1]. I'm pretty sure that's why he gets in, because he's seen as a "good bloke" who does work for the local area and things of concern to the locals.
[1] I rule out the Labour one as no way do I want Labour to get in, no matter how much I might like the person standing.