Thursday 6th May
May. 6th, 2010 08:04 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
I'm sure someone's expecting this post, so...
Vote, folks. It's your right.
(readers from countries who do not have an election today need not apply; may contain nuts; candidates measured by volume, nit weight; the value of your vote may go up as well as down (but is worthless if you don't use it).)
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 07:24 am (UTC)Looked at the list here, and there wasn't really any choice. Well, the sitting Labour MP is a decent bloke, and I'd be happy to see him elected, but four right-wing authoritarian parties on the ballot is getting a bit excessive.
Yo, I'll tell you what I want, what I really really want,
So tell me what you want, what you really really want,
I'll tell you what I want, what I really really want,
So tell me what you want, what you really really want,
I wanna, I wanna, I wanna, I wanna, I wanna really
really really wanna zigazig ha.
[GRAMS] Footsteps receding into distance. Creaking door. BLAM! Music stops.
And if the BNP come around with their imaginary Spitfire, I have an imaginary Anarchist fighter squadron flying CAP. With an AWACS Zeppelin.
(No, this election campaign hasn't driven me crazy. Yet.)
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 07:43 am (UTC)It is almost certain that my vote will be wasted anyway -- last election Tory 49%, LD 27%, Labour 18%, UKIP 5% (and the Tory percentage has risen for the last two elections). Unless the sitting MP drops dead (or resigns) today there is no chance of my vote doing anything at all.
(I will vote, but still have no idea which way, I dislike all of them. "A plaque on all their houses"; one of those blue ones saying "Freedom died here" and the date...)
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 09:25 am (UTC)Anyway, no vote is wasted. Your vote - whoever you vote for - sends a message that the candidate/party of your choice has support in the area. The more people who send that message, the less likely that people will be saying in the *next* election "my vote would be wasted".
As for who to vote for, if you dislike all the parties equally, I suggest you vote for the local candidate you think will do best for the constituency (although you have left it a bit late to do your research, google is your friend).
A very quick check on your candidates suggests that neither the Labour or LibDem candidates have been "parachuted in", which is to their credit. The Labour candidate was born and brought up in Aylesbury, whereas the LibDem is a sitting district councilor for Coldharbour. Google them, read their webpages/blogs, try to get an idea about them.
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 09:31 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 11:21 am (UTC)I doubt it -- there is no evidence which way they would vote (they could easily have the same proportions as those who do vote). As I said after the last election, IF everyone who didn't vote turned up and IF they almost all voted the same way (not Tory and not split) then there would be a good chance of changing it. If that 37.6% were equally split between LD and Labour (and none of them voted Tory) then the LibDems would just get in. In practice, however, I would be pretty certain that a reasonable proportion of those who didn't vote would vote Tory (and don't bother because he's going to get in anyway), making it hard for anyone else to get in.
(The only thing which can actually be said with any authority about those who didn't vote is that they didn't vote. How they might have voted is completely unknown. The most likely thing, statistically, is that the proportions would be the same as in the rest of the population under consideration, but that too is an assumption.)
Actually, if I vote for the person who I think would do best for the area then I would vote for the incumbent[1]. I'm pretty sure that's why he gets in, because he's seen as a "good bloke" who does work for the local area and things of concern to the locals.
[1] I rule out the Labour one as no way do I want Labour to get in, no matter how much I might like the person standing.
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 11:24 am (UTC)And that's where I think we differ. I /don't/ think those proportions are the same, because the two sets of people self-select into those groups, and choosing to vote or not does NOT, IMO, have zero correlation to which way you would vote if you believed your vote mattered.
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 12:11 pm (UTC)Of course, having zero correlation is also unlikely, but I never said that. But in order to get a win for the LD (I don't think Labout have any chance here) the correlation would have to be pretty massive, and I see no evidence for that.
Yes, it is possible that everyone who didn't vote will all vote the same way contrary to those who did vote. It's also possible that all of the molecules in a girl's clothing will all move in the same direction at once and expose her, but lacking an Infinite Improbability Drive (and the requisite cup of hot tea[1] to power it) I doubt that either is likely.
[1] The stuff they have here is obviously out of the Sirius Cybernetics Corp. and wouldn't power anything.
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 08:35 am (UTC)Oooh, now I'm wondering what knit weight measuring looks like. "Tear or cut ballot into narrow, even strips, then knit up with needle size of your choice..." *grins*
I shall go vote, yes.
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 10:20 am (UTC)(I went to a knitting exhibition at the Arts Council once - they had some paper knitting where someone had carefully shredded old books into strips, joined them together and knitted them up...)
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 11:20 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 09:28 am (UTC)For this reason, I have a postal vote, so my vote has been already cast.
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 10:06 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 10:28 am (UTC)I'm off to do mine in a minute, and face a truly horrible choice. The best potential MP, *by far*, is a colour that I've never ticked in my life. I am facing a battle between what I know would be the right decision for the area and 18 years of my mother quoting Nye Bevin and Keir Hardie...
*sigh*
If only there was a nice Green Party Candidate I could vote for!
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 10:54 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 11:13 am (UTC)The Lib Dems might get a bit of a boost from our new local Labour candidate having been suspended from the Labour party, along with the national swing, but it's still a fairly safe Tory seat.
I'll be voting anyway.
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 12:13 pm (UTC)I just managed to misread that (mild dyslexia is fun!) as "Soft Green Cannabis". I'll vote for that *g*...
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 12:30 pm (UTC)Better media coverage of the minority parties and candidates would help, I feel... but I do feel obliged to defend those who have not, for whatever reason, spammed your letterbox. 'Not bothering' may really not be a fair assessment. Sorry for any offence - that's my tuppenceworth.
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 01:09 pm (UTC)And actually going round to houses and standing in the town square or whatever is very expensive if you don't have the resources to employ a lot of other people to do it for you (several thousand houses a day?).
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 09:04 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 03:15 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 12:11 pm (UTC)but would have loved a 're-open nominations' option.
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 12:14 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 01:12 pm (UTC)[1] i.e. if it won they'd have to re-take the vote, basically forcing the incumbent to stand down and fight a by-election.
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 04:10 pm (UTC)CleggletsDribbly Lemingcrats. This time with a hell of a lot more hope of it doing some good: Our current incumbent is ayellow-bellyDripping Lemoncart, and jolly good MP, but he only won by a gnats whisker last time and of course the Tory voters in the area will be out in force this year to try and get him out... [FINGERS CROSSED](no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 08:23 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 11:22 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-06 11:51 pm (UTC)Take some hypothetical seats:
As you can see from that, LibDem get more votes than Labour but no seats at all. Project that across 650 seats (and add a few minority parties who will take votes and not get any seats at all)...
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-08 12:04 am (UTC)